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Jason Zweig’s column in the October 31, 2010 edition of The Wall Street Journal contained some sobering news about my colleagues in the money management business. It appears that the professionals, who get paid in part for giving objective advice, seem to fall prey to the same herd mentality as regular folks.
Advisors allowed, or urged, their clients to pile into stocks when the market was high, and yet, when the market was low, they had their clients move to bonds and cash.
In other words, in terms of the stock market, that was exactly the opposite of the golden advice to buy low, sell high.
Specifically, TD Ameritrade reported that advisors who work through them had, on average, 26% of their client’s money in bonds or cash back on October 9, 2007, when the Dow hit its highest point ever. But at the low point of the stock market in the recent Great Recession, March 9, 2009, when stocks were a screaming bargain, advisors on average had almost doubled the percentage in bonds and cash, to 51% of client portfolios.
You can be fairly certain these numbers were similar for advisors at Fidelity, Schwab, or anywhere else. (To be sure, some bonds and some bond mutual funds produced stock-like returns during that period, but we can assume most bond positions were taken as a defensive measure.)
It’s easy to understand how advisors allow this to happen. In our office we regularly feel pressure from a handful of clients to change their portfolios based on headlines, and yes, from time to time we too accede to their requests. But it rarely works out in the long run. In almost every case, the client ends up regretting the decision to change course based on headlines.
We strongly believe that the long term trend of the stock market, and American capitalism, is up. Whether you are inside or out of the financial advice business, staying optimistic about the future and ignoring the short-term volatility of the markets usually is the smartest approach.