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Year-to-date, one of our model portfolios is lagging behind the S&P 500 Index by around seven percentage points. We are not happy, and despite the model having an excellent long term record, a few of our clients who are in that model, not surprisingly, have called to express concern.

Which raises the question – what is a realistic expectation for short-term performance?  How does one follow the oft-told advice to stay the course?

Here’s some perspective.

The May, 2010, issue of the Hulbert Financial Digest took a look at the performance of the 20% of newsletters that had the best performance over the past ten years. The results showed something I had expected, but had never seen so clearly expressed.

Hulbert showed that the best, smartest minds in the financial newsletter world lag the overall stock market “in an average of 3 of 10 calendar years.”

That’s right. The best will disappoint you roughly one third of the time.

In the same article Hulbert cited a 2007 academic study that looked at underperformance in the mutual fund world. Once again, it was clear that weak short term results are commonplace as well for leading mutual fund portfolio managers. The authors of that study found that among those mutual funds that outperformed 90% of their peers during the previous decade, every single one was “in the bottom half for performance in at least one 12-month period.”

Even more startling was the finding that 75% of those same leading mutual funds “were in the bottom 10% during at least one 12-month period.” Going further, the study showed those same funds, on average, “lagged the S&P 500 by 19.5% in their worst one-year periods.”

Would you have had the strength of mind to withstand being nearly 20% behind the market for a full year? (It kind of puts our 7% lag in a new light, don’t you think?)

The lessons are clear:

1. Everyone falters now and then.
2. If you want superior long-term performance, you will have to grin-and-bear it with some regularity.
3. To help get you over the inevitable short-term potholes, stick with strategies that have demonstrated proven long-term success. That will help give you the mental fortitude to not change strategies at the wrong time.

Patience and discipline – I know of no successful investor who lacks those two qualities.

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One Response to ““Stay the Course.” Here’s How.”
  1. Ken Salzman on May 29th, 2010 5:52 pm

    Patience and discipline are good. I have followed them for well over 20 years. They did not, however, prevent me from essentially losing nearly a decade of investment growth. I calculate returns by 1, 5, 10 and 20 year increments, and do not panic at the 1 year drops, if they are met with subsequent returns. The flat-line from 2000 to 2008, however, was disheartening. In addition to patience and discipline to be invested in the market, you also need time. If a no-growth decade is not sustainable, the market can be a hazardous place to play.

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