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One of my favorite pastimes is debunking experts. What follows is a gold medal example of how the best and brightest can be wrong, big time.
Last August, the mighty Standard & Poor’s downgraded, for the first time ever, the credit rating of the United States. America was no longer an AAA lender, according to the geniuses at S&P.
You remember the outcry, don’t you? Politicians screamed, fingers of blame were pointed, and financial pros quaked at the impending dire consequences. Few in the media dared question the correctness of S&P’s position, and few doubted that there were dark days ahead.
Now, a year later, we see the truth: they were all wrong. The downgrade meant nothing. Less than nothing, in fact.
When the downgrade happened, mortgage rates were predicted to go up, sharply. Instead, they are now down to record low levels.
The U.S. government, we were warned by the talking-head experts, would have a hard time selling its bonds and would be forced to substantially boost the rate it promised to pay. Instead, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note plummeted from 2.6% back then (an already low rate) to a ridiculously low 1.6% now.
Surely the stock market would fall as the world “realized” the U.S. was in precarious financial shape. But the Dow Jones Industrials are more than a thousand points higher.
Even the stubborn unemployment rate, which was 9.1% when the downgrade occurred, has dropped to 8.2% now.
In other words, not only did the sky not fall, the sky got bluer.
When it comes to Standard & Poor’s, and the other ratings agencies for that matter, never forget that these were the same folks who had given their highest rating to the various mortgage-backed securities that almost brought down the U.S. economy in 2008.
Perhaps the only thing that should have been downgraded is our faith in the ratings agencies.